Bitcoin Price Report for April 10, 2017
Apr 10, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary:
Another weekend, another strong performance by bitcoin in terms of price. Lingering uncertainty regarding the implications of the ASICBOOT controversy was unable to deter the bulls from pushing through the psychologically significant 1200 $ level, although we will admit that the recent Bitfinex fiat withdrawal issues could be assisting price to the upside for the time being (hence the 10 - 20 $ premium on Finex lately). That said, we still think the majority of the action we are currently seeing is technically-driven, meaning that the charts will remain our most prescient guide as we traverse the second trading week of April.
While we are not expecting anything spectacular from a price action perspective either to the upside or the downside, at least not for now, we do think that the possibility of a continuation up into the [members-only text] prior to a more substantial pullback remains good. Given the current fundamental and technical conditions we would be happy for an opportunity to get more long at lower levels such as the low [members-only text], which is now strong support. For more granularity, let's move on to the charts...
6-Hour Chart:
We return to the 6-hour chart today to start the week given it remains the most conclusive shorter term chart we have. Notice that price is still up in a [members-only text] zone, although much like the last time we were in an [members-only text] the market is simply treading water within it rather correcting below it. We can also see that SCMR is back to painting [members-only text] candles today following a a few small [members-only text] bars from over the weekend, which actually ended up creating new multi-week dynamic support on the [members-only text]. Combine this with still [members-only text] market structure, a newly bullish Ichimoku Cloud, stacking EMA's, and a 50 and 200 SMA which are about to cross (golden cross) as they continue to reverse back to the upside and it looks to us like the bias remains firmly bullish for the time being.
With that said, there are still some warning signs as far as momentum and volume are concerned considering Willy and the Stochastic remain officially overbought, RSI is bearishly divergent, MACD has completely flatlined, and PPO is neutral. Additionally, trading volumes remain anemic, the A/D line is now [members-only text], and volume profile is still relatively porous below the market (and we are out of the [members-only text] currently). Seeing as though we now have strong dynamic support building at [members-only text], a move below that level over the next 24 hours seems unlikely, however even if the market breaks down there are still multiple areas of support that should attract buyers such as the broken triangle trendline, the upper supply area, the Ichimoku Cloud, and longer term SMA's. For these reasons we want to remain [members-only text], but we also want to stay patient given we are currently in the VST Long ProTrade on the breakout above [members-only text] (which is our new breakeven stoploss level).
Daily Chart:
One more look at the daily chart before moving on to the longer term charts over the next few days and we can see that the symmetrical triangle has already been broken to the upside, although price is still inside the [members-only text] zone off of the ATH's from last month and is close to the upper supply area. Here too we have new [members-only text] building as well, although not quite as impressive looking on this timeframe admittedly, all relevant moving averages still confirming the bull market, an A/D line that remains encouraging, and an Ichimoku Cloud that continues to stay positive.
On the other hand, momentum could definitely use a recharge soon considering the Stochastic is now pinned in officially overbought territory, Willy is close to overbought, RSI is lagging, MACD is rolling over, and PPO just started flashing weak sell signals. Granted we could be back in an environment in which overbought momentum oscillators are indicating strength as opposed to exhaustion, however even then we think a selloff prior to new ATH's is a pretty good bet (one that [members-only text]). Overall we think the medium term technicals are still supportive of higher prices, especially in light of the fundamental developments over the past week.
Market Summary:
Seeing as though we are currently in the VST ProTrade breakout play, we are in wait and see mode for the time being. While the position is small, is it enough to keep us in the game in case prices do indeed continue up into the more significant [members-only text] resistance area where our exit target sits. If not, we will get stopped around breakeven which will preserve capital so that we can redeploy it, and more, at lower and more favorable levels. If not, we'll try yet another breakout play on a move above the [members-only text] resistance region.
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/10/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED on 4/9/2017]**: We will stay in the [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level with a stop at [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/10/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/6/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
