Bitcoin Price Report for April 19, 2017
Apr 19, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary:
It's been steady as she goes for the bitcoin markets so far this week as bulls and bears continue to battle it out at relatively elevated levels. We are quite certain that the Bitfinex issues (which have led to the 60+ $ premium), now combined with those at OKCoin in terms of fiat deposits, are assisting in keeping prices above 1200 $ on most exchanges, so it will be interesting to see what materializes if/when these problems are resolved. For the time being, though, the technicals remain mixed to slightly bullish while the fundamentals continue to drive uncertainty, so we want to stay [members-only text] for the time being.
Given these unfavorable conditions we think it is unlikely that price moves too far away from the still active [members-only text] trading range, at least not until after futures settlements early Friday morning. That gives us a few more days of chop until a potential resolution going into what could be another wild weekend.
4-Hour Chart:
Seeing as though the action has flattened out again recently, we want to zoom in slightly today via the 4-hour chart below. Notice that price is in yet another [members-only text] zone where price is consolidating within it rather than selling off back below it (a bullish sign), although we still don't have any new [members-only text] to shoot against yet which is not so good. What is good, though, is that the EMA's have held on the recent spikes down to 1190 $, in addition to the fact that the 50 SMA remains bullish and the 200 SMA still supportive, all while SCMR has stayed [members-only text] over the past 24 hours. Finally, the Ichimoku Cloud remains firmly bullish and the A/D line continues to confirm the market strength.
Moving on to momentum and things get a bit more challenging considering Willy is now fully pinned in officially overbought territory, the Stochastic is still overbought as well despite a minor recharge thus far, RSI has flatlined in no man's land, MACD is about to break back below the zeroline, and PPO remains neutral. Additionally, price is on the border of the volume profile value area, which remains thin below the market especially around [members-only text], and recent exchange volumes have been leaning [members-only text]. Having said that, there are many patches of fairly substantial support at multiple levels below the market so for now we want to remain in [members-only text] mode.
Daily Chart:
Not too much has changed in terms of the daily chart over the past 24 hours, although you will notice that we have adjusted the upper triangle trendline to account for the recent regional high at 1229 $. While we are skeptical as to whether or not the triangle is still in play, we think it helpful to visualize where trendline resistance would be if it were in fact still intact. Another breakout above this updated downtrend line, combined with now somewhat [members-only text], would likely spell the death of the triangle for good (or at least morph it into an ascending triangle, which actually is a very real possibility given recent price action).
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, there hasn't been too much change since yesterday as Willy remains overbought, RSI is still anemic, the Stochastic is pausing, MACD is near its zeroline, and PPO has returned to neutral. Also note that the EMA's remain supportive and bullish while the 200 SMA continues to confirm the longer term bull market, and the Ichimoku Cloud is still bullish despite some recent contraction. Conversely, volumes are falling off a cliff, the A/D line has stagnated, and volume profile remains [members-only text]. Under normal circumstances we would say that these are prime conditions for a more substantial pullback prior to a real attempt at a break above the [members-only text] resistance area, however considering recent price action it is hard to believe that the bears could get too much going over the short term barring an unforeseen negative catalyst.
Market Summary:
Once again the market toyed with our VST ProTrade entry zone overnight, missing it this time by a mere 5 $. While we would have likely waited until price got further into that [members-only text]area, the fact that we are getting close to these levels means that we remain in sync with the market for now, generally speaking. With that in mind, we will continue to stay [members-only text]for the time being considering the market remains in both short and medium term consolidation ranges, the newest of which now sits between the [members-only text] low and the [members-only text] high. Beyond that we still have the main [members-only text] trading range, which until broken will continue to define the overall market conditions.
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/19/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/18/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/11/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/3/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
