Bitcoin Price Report for April 28, 2017
Apr 28, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary:
While the market looked unstoppable for most of the day yesterday, a final failure to break above the key 1350 $ ATH resistance level precipitated the downside volatility that we are witnessing this morning. This is precisely why we wanted to wait for the market to prove itself by moving convincingly though [members-only text] prior to activating the VST ProTrade [members-only text], a decision that has so far proved advantageous. That said, now we are stuck in the position of having to wait for the market to tell us what it wants to do: head higher following a brief recharge to test the ATH once again, or continue to press lower into support where it could chop around for a few days. We'll turn to the technicals for the answer, however at this point we do not see much on the fundamental horizon that could take this market much below [members-only text], if at all, even if things turn ugly.
Other than that, we don't have too much more to say before moving on to the charts. Given the price action we have observed over the past 12 hours, we would say there is a pretty good chance of moving sideways for the majority of the weekend as new near term support and resistance levels are established and tested.
4-Hour Chart:
Considering the added volatility we have seen over the past few hours, we wanted to close the week with a slightly shorter term chart for a more detailed view of what is currently occurring. We can see that price has turned somewhat bearish from a market structure perspective, although its not too bad yet, while spiky rejections up near 1350 $ have triggered more [members-only text]SCMR candles. That said, we still do not have any new [members-only text], price is holding within the ATH supply area, and the EMA's are already providing support as they continue to stack to the upside for now. Additionally, the longer term moving averages are still supportive of the bull market, the Ichimoku Cloud continues to expand higher, and there are [members-only text] to work off of if weakness intensifies over the weekend.
Moving on to momentum and volume and things look more interesting than they have in awhile. Notice that none of the momentum oscillators are in officially overbought territory anymore, other than PPO which mildly is, however they are all still pinned up in near that area. Also note that MACD has broken back below its zeroline, but with relatively muted fanfare. Finally, volumes are more mixed than they have been in some time, although they are increasing (which is good), and volume profile looks as healthy as it has in months other than some thin air between [members-only text] and [members-only text]. We would love to get an opportunity to catch a dip back down into that area, or if not to [members-only text], so we will keep all of the VST & ST setups intact over the weekend.
Weekly Chart:
As we expand our view of the market even further today, the weekly chart seems a good way to wrap up and tie a bow on the technicals. First of all, it is almost impossible to deny the general bullish market structure that we have working on this chart. A beautiful rounded frying pan bottom is now facilitating speculative demand near the highs at a time when available supply seems to be getting smaller by the day. Notice that SCMR is [members-only text] as price continues to consolidate broadly between [members-only text], however we think the market is getting close to moving into unchartered waters especially if price can put in a higher low over the next few weeks.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, all of the relevant moving averages remain in firm uptrends, Willy and RSI continue to chop around just below overbought territory, the Stochastic is back to the 80-line, MACD is anemic, and PPO is still flashing weak sell signals. Additionally, trading volumes are favoring the bears for now on this timeframe, the A/D line looks healthy but is stalling, and volume profile is very thin below the market. While some of these indications should give us pause at these elevated levels, at least over the near term, we think the bias still favors the bulls considering that overbought momentum has been a sign of strength throughout the 2017 rally. No doubt that could change at any moment, however price action and market structure don't seem to be hinting at such a reversal, at least not yet.
Market Summary:
While the failure to breakout to new ATH's might be frustrating to some traders, we think this consolidation is a more optimal scenario for sustainable price increases over the coming weeks as opposed to transitioning into parabolic-mode already. There was a chance of entering what would likely have been the final phase of this bull market if we did go that route, however it looks like the market is staying rational enough to check price back down when things start to get stretched.
If the market can continue to be well-behaved yet upwardly inclined over the coming days, then [members-only text] seems like a pretty good bet in the not too distant future. Regardless of what happens, we are ready and waiting for whatever the market throws at us over the weekend.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 4/28/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/28/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 4/27/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 4/28/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [UPDATED on 4/28/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
