Bitcoin Price Report for December 19, 2016
Dec 19, 2016 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary (BTC):
As we move from the weekend trade into this new holiday-shortened week, the shorter term outlook has gotten progressively more muddled, at least from a technical perspective. Once again the market defied logic by moving sideways to slightly higher over the past few days, contrary to what most thought would be a volatile weekend, which tells us that indecision remains the main feature of the current market. In light of rather unconvincing technical evidence on both sides of the market, we need to take a close look at the 6-hour chart below in order to get a better idea of where we might head over the next couple of weeks..
We can see on said 6-hour chart that despite slow and steady progress to the upside recently, price action and market structure are [members-only text]. Notice that price continues to follow the ascending wedge formation while remaining in the short term supply area, both of which are typically bearish indications. Also note that the Stochastic is officially overbought, Willy is very close to -20, RSI is already rolling over, and MACD is still bearishly divergent. Additionally, volume profile remains porous below the market, we are well outside of the VP value area, and exchange volumes [members-only text].
None of this instills much confidence that higher prices are in the cards over the near term, but there are still some signs that it remains possible. Notice that SCMR continues to paint [members-only text] right now while new, and VERY strong, monthly dynamic support is now building around the [members-only text] level. Additionally, the 200-period SMA continues to confirm the bull market, the 50 SMA remains supportive, the EMA's are still stacking to the upside thus confirming the near term uptrend, and the A/D line remains strong and steady as players continue to accumulate around current levels.
Despite what may seem like a relatively negative technical outlook on the market to start this Christmas week, the reality is not as bad as it appears. While we do think there is a good possibility of a [members-only text] before the end of the year, we also think downside remains limited considering how willing bulls have been to buy dips recently (in addition to the supply shock theory we posited last week).
A move out of the wedge would likely target the [members-only text] area, which is where OTE, trendline, and dynamic support all sit, although an extension down into the [members-only text]area cannot be ruled out either. Regardless, we remain [members-only text] of moves to the downside into these support areas given we still think the medium to long term forecast remains bullish.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 12/19/2016]**: (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
1b.) **[ACTIVE; ENTERED on 12/19/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around the [members-only text] level and a target of [members-only text].
2a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 12/19/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2b.) **[UPDATED on 12/14/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 12/5/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 12/5/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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