Bitcoin Price Report for December 23, 2016
Dec 23, 2016 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary:
Incredibly, bitcoin only stayed in the 800's $ for a total of about 48 hours before impatient bulls pushed price above 900 $ late yesterday. Overall we think the bull market remains in full effect and is likely to continue for the foreseeable future due to a confluence of both positive fundamentals and favorable longer term technicals. Having said that, price is currently struggling with the 915 $ level, and will likely do so at the 925 $ level as well, which makes sense considering we are now in the heart of the longer term OTE short zone off of the ATH's. For this reason, amongst many others that we will discuss below, we want to remain [members-only text].
Seeing as though we are heading into a long holiday weekend, meaning we will return with a full Bitcoin Report on Tuesday, we wanted to take a look at a few medium and longer term charts in order to put the current price action into context. We start with the weekly chart below for some perspective on the current state of this cycle, and we can see that all systems are go [members-only text] given market structure and the potential for the formation of another, even bigger, cup and handle pattern. Also note that SCMR is still painting [members-only text], dynamic support is still building at [members-only text], volumes are confirming the breakout, and all short and medium term moving averages are accelerating to the upside. Generally speaking, there are all signs that a [members-only text] is likely over the coming weeks.
On the other hand, there remain many worrying near term indications that continue to give us pause at current levels, mainly related to momentum. Notice that Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all now officially overbought, while MACD paints a rather concerning bearish divergence. Additionally, price is now well outside of the [members-only text] area, is well within the long term OTE short zone, and the A/D line is losing a little bit of steam, all of which tell us that a pullback would be healthy and welcome. As far as this chart is concerned, the relevant levels of resistance left before a break to new highs are the top of the OTE around 925 $, the psychologically significant 1000 $ level, and the actual ATH of 1163 $.
Moving on to the daily chart, we can see that things currently looked stretched to the upside here as well, although they also [members-only text] over the course of the long weekend. First of all, SCMR is still painting [members-only text] on this chart as well, however we also have much more dynamic support than on the weekly chart discussed above (the newest of which is building around [members-only text]). Not only that, but volume is confirming the rally, the A/D line is still trending higher, the EMA's are stacking to the upside, and market structure remains bullish. Conversely, all of the momentum oscillators are overbought (Willy, RSI, Stochastic), MACD is extended to the upside, and PPO is flashing weak sell signals once again.
While we would not be at all surprised to see another leg to the upside over the Christmas weekend, we think it will be tough for bulls to push through the 925 $ resistance level, or if so the 1000 $ mark, without a pullback to test support first. We would be [members-only text], and would likely [members-only text]. If, on the other hand, a pullback does not materialize, then we will consider [members-only text].
Happy Holidays!!!
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 12/23/2016]**: (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
1b.) **[UPDATED on 12/23/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 12/23/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 12/23/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 12/5/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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