Bitcoin Price Report for January 30, 2017
Jan 30, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary:
Often BBA's forecasts are in the ballpark of reality in terms of actualization over time, however we were right on the money regarding what we expected to be a flat weekend in the markets this time around. Indeed the commencement of the Chinese New Year holidays has drained the market of volume, liquidity, and price action over the past few days, and given the festivities continue through February 2nd we could see the markets remain in limbo until after it's all over. Having said that, the fact that the bears have not been able to push price lower during this period of stagnation is fairly encourgaing, and there are some minor signals on the near term charts that are shifting our bias to [members-only text] for the time being. However, we don't think there is [members-only text]relatively speaking so we are still expecting the market to remain range bound within a couple of different areas, so we will turn to the charts for more details on these indications.
We return to the 4-hour chart since the 6-hour has completely flatlined with no new signals. We can see below that the sideways price action has brought us back out of and above the now bullish Ichimoku Cloud, although there is still congestion around price in the form of the short term EMA's, the 200 SMA, and the Tenkan/Kijun lines from said Cloud. Also note that SCMR is trying to paint another [members-only text] on what is very lackluster action, a sign that [members-only text] are trying to stage a comeback during this seasonally unique week. Finally, MACD and PPO have flatlined, price remains above volume profile PoC, the A/D line is still trending higher, and Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all treading water in no man's land. While it seems as though the market wants to remain in a sideways consolidation, generally speaking, we also now think that a [members-only text] is certainly not out of the question considering the new near term signals we are seeing. For now, though, we remain neutral and on the sidelines.
For confirmation we turn once again to the daily chart for the medium term outlook. Due to the severe lack of volatility over the past few days the chart below has not changed all that much since last Friday, although there are some interesting things to note going forward. Notice that price is still inside the intermediate term supply area as expected, however SCMR painted a [members-only text] yesterday albeit on very low volume. Additionally, price is above volume profile PoC, as well as all relevant moving averages, while the Ichimoku Cloud stays bullish despite the still bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross. Lastly, the Stochastic remains pinned in overbought territory, RSI and MACD have flatlined on neutral conditions, Willy and PPO are getting close to overbought, all while the A/D line continue to move healthily to the upside. This medium term view of the technicals seems to be confirming the notion that the market is not yet ready to move away from the current [members-only text] near term trading range, and by default the[members-only text] medium term range as well, but that if a breakout does materialize it is likely to be [members-only text].
Following a weekend of stability, the market might be in need of some minor volatility in order to shake out complacency before settling into another sideways consolidation range. Given the discussions above, we are leaning [members-only text] for now over the near term, however we don't expect to see large gaps or spikes over the coming days which means we are not all that excited about entering positions around current levels. That said, if we do end up seeing some washouts develop to the downside to test support into [members-only text], we will certainly be trying to [members-only text] in anticipation of a more active February.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/30/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/30/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/24/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/23/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 1/10/2017]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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