Bitcoin Price Report for January 4, 2017
Jan 4, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary:
Another day, another new cycle high for bitcoin. In fact, rather than slowing down in order to digest the recent breakouts, the market has been accelerating to the upside in the face of media FUD pieces and very stretched technicals. While there is no way to tell where this move will top out over the near term, although it looks like soon, we do think all of this is a sign that the supply and demand imbalances are getting more extreme. A pullback will materialize at some point, whether it be now, near the 2013 ATH's, or well above them, however for the time being there really isn't much to do other than watch the fireworks in amazement and hope for a selloff into support.
Not much need to look at the medium to long term charts right now as they all look similarly bullish, having said that they are also getting a bit parabolic so the odds of a bout of downside volatility continue to increase as price continues to accelerate. With that in mind, we want to look at the 4-hour chart for potential reversal signs given it is the most relevant short term timeframe we currently work with. Notice that SCMR is still painting [members-only text] and dynamic support continues to build around [members-only text], neither of which are indicating a [members-only text]is imminent. We can also see that the Ichimoku Cloud remains bullish as it climbs higher with price, albeit with alot of room to chop around, the EMA's are still stacking to the upside, and the 200 SMA is confirming the bull market.
Having said all of that, there remain many warning signs as far as momentum goes, not least of which is a trifecta of officially overbought oscillators. Additionally, PPO is still painting weak sell signals, MACD has yet to really pick up steam, and volume profile looks porous below the market. Not only that, but we are at the 161.8% Fib extension which seems like a good place to pullback (and which looks to be materializing as we write this). Lastly, the A/D line and exchange volumes both continue to favor the bulls, which means [members-only text], however volatility spikes to both to the upside and downside need to be protected against at all costs.
Generally speaking, we remain firmly in the bull camp from a medium to long term perspective, but realize that a proper retracement is in order prior to a continuation sustainably up through ATH's. We think now is as good a time as any to get it over with in order to set the stage for the real fireworks going into [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/4/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED on 12/30/2016; CLOSED on 1/1/2017 @ 995 $ for +6.65% PROFIT]**: We have closed our LONG position off of the 933 $ level at the intended target of 995 $ for +6.65% profit in less than three days.
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/3/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/3/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 12/28/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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