Bitcoin Price Report for March 10, 2017
Mar 10, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary:
Paralysis has beset the bitcoin markets over the past 24 hours as uncertainty regarding the ETF decision continues to rise. Many participants think a decision will come down today which is why the recent flatline has been so pronounced, however we are skeptical as to whether the SEC will deliver their decision today given price action is not signaling anything imminent yet. Ultimately, the SEC has until COB (close of business) Monday to make their announcement which potentially leaves a weekend of speculation and indecision to deal with prior to a resolution next week. All of that aside, the technicals are looking better than they did earlier in the week which reinforces our thinking that [members-only text] upon rejection but upside will be [members-only text] given approval. For more clarity, lets move on to the charts below before heading into what could be a strange weekend for bitcoin traders.
Back to the 6-hour chart as it remains the most relevant in terms of the near term forecast. We can see below that after a [members-only text] candle painted yesterday price action began to go neutral, however we still [members-only text] so we don't want to get too excited just yet. Also note that price seems to be following the top of the Ichimoku Cloud higher and is back above volume profile PoC, although resistance in the form of the 18 EMA and the Tenkan signal line are both putting a cap on price around current levels. Additionally, momentum has shifted into a neutral environment as well considering Willy, RSI, and the Stochastic are all flatlining in no man's land, MACD is back to its zeroline, the A/D is steady as she goes, and PPO is still flashing strong buys signals. For the time being it appears as though the market will continue to consolidate in [members-only text] until we hear about the ETF, that said there seems to be a slight upside bias which could take price up into the [members-only text] over the weekend given there is no decision until Monday. Regardless, we expect price to stay in the triangle over the next few days (barring a decision on the ETF).
We finish off this week in bitcoin by revisiting the daily chart once again. Notice that here too we have a [members-only text] candle that was able to paint yesterday, and now we are back to neutral while dynamic support returns to the [members-only text] area. We can also see that the A/D line remains healthy, exchanges volumes have put in a small bullish divergence, and the EMA's are still holding as support telling us that the bias does indeed remain to the upside for now. On the other hand, volume profile remains thin, momentum has not yet recharged as much as we had hoped, and more significant support continues to sit down in the [members-only text] areas. Despite the fact that we think [members-only text] will hold even on an ETF rejection, we must be prepared for a spike down into these lower zones just in case things get momentarily out of control. In other words, we want to be ready to [members-only text] if presented the opportunity.
Generally speaking, we think that neutrality is the most appropriate positioning going into one of the most unique trading weekends in bitcoin's history, other than our ST ProTrade which will remain active given a still favorable risk/reward profile. Taking into account the current fundamental and technical conditions, even slight movements up or down could be wrongly (or rightly) interpreted as insiders acting on unreleased information thus magnifying the intensity of moves as we get closer to the decision. Either that, or price could just continues to tread water around 1200 $ until we get a definitive answer. Regardless, we feel well-positioned and well-prepared for whatever the market throws at us over the course of the next week or so.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 3/10/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED on 3/8/2017]**: We stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3a.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/10/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/10/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 3/6/2017]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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