Bitcoin Price Report for March 24, 2017
Mar 24, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary:
Fundamental uncertainty continues to take its toll on the bitcoin markets as price has broken back below the key 1000 $ level over the past few hours. Generally speaking, we remain in the camp that a hard fork is unlikely, at least over the next few months, while we also think that SegWit is likely doomed as well (at least this year). This leaves us with the status quo for the foreseeable future, a fate that many bitcoiners would gladly accept, however the fact that the infighting, propaganda, and threats will likely persist throughout this stalemate period has us concerned about how the market will act over the coming months. For the time being we are still of the mind that an extended consolidation, which we are currently already in, is the most probable outcome over the short to medium term, although now we are thinking it might be in an even broader range than we originally thought (perhaps extending lower than initially expected).
Having said all of that, we did enter the VST ProTrade 1(b) yesterday at 1012 $ due purely to the near term technical setup and the attractive risk/reward profile, however that trade was already stopped out at the 986 $ stop level. It seems as though the current conditions are simply too [members-only text], despite how attractive they may seem at the time. Going forward, at least throughout the weekend, we are moving to the sidelines to watch the action from a place of neutrality.
6-Hour Chart:
Today we shift back to the 6-hour chart where we can see that the technicals have turned more negative since our update yesterday, especially in terms of market structure and price action. Notice that SCMR is back to painting [members-only text] following the inability for bulls to paint a [members-only text], which ultimately led to a failure to break above the EMA's which has now led to new dynamic resistance being built around the [members-only text] local high from yesterday. Also note that the Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish, as do the aforementioned EMA's, the 50 SMA is about to cross below the 200 SMA (death cross), and the higher low from yesterday has now been taken out which is discouraging for bulls to be sure.
On the other hand, momentum and volume don't look all that bad, interestingly enough, which was the main reason why were trying to stay in the VST ProTrade (to no avail). As far as momentum is concerned, things are certainly getting more stretched to the downside considering the Stochastic is officially oversold, Willy is [members-only text], RSI and MACD are both trying to paint bullish divergences, and PPO is still flashing weak buy signals. Additionally, price is now way outside of the [members-only text], the A/D line continues to stay steady at current levels despite the recent drop in price, and sell volumes continue to wane. Throw in the fact that we are inside the near term OTE long zone as well as the secondary lower demand area, and we still think there is a decent chance at a small bounce soon even though we are not in a trade.
Daily Chart:
Moving on to the daily chart and we can see that price is currently at some fairly critical levels in terms of support, which is why we have decided to move to the sidelines for all [members-only text]. We can see that price is trying to hold the lower triangle trendline, as well as the top of the still bullish Ichimoku Cloud, however [members-only text] SCMR candles and [members-only text] are making that a difficult task. Also note that the EMA's are now stacking to the downside here as well, which means the market will have steady near term resistance to deal with until we get a more convincing reversal back to the upside.
As far as momentum and volume go, things remain oversold on the momentum oscillators, MACD is trying to paint a bullish divergence, PPO is flashing strong buy signals, and the A/D line remains fairly flat at current levels. Additionally, sell volumes continue to diminish, the 200 SMA remains supportive of the longer term bull market, and we still have a more substantial trendline to watch down in the [members-only text]. Again, from a technical perspective it looks like the market may be be due for a small bounce from current levels, although the fundamental uncertainties present in the marketplace right now could very well be too much to overcome for the time being which is why we think [members-only text].
Market Summary:
As we settle into what could be the "new normal" of a persistent standoff between the two currently warring factions of bitcoin over the next few months, we need to be prepared to be [members-only text] so as not to get chopped up in what we think will be fairly brutal trading conditions throughout the [members-only text]. Additionally, the campaign by many large bitcoin holders right now to punish rogue miners by dumping coins and putting pressure on price remains in full swing, which tells us that players will likely be more inclined to [members-only text], at least for now. This means that bias likely remains in the [members-only text] until further notice.
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Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1b.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED @ 1012 $; CLOSED @ 986 $]**: We were stopped out of our LONG position off of the 1012 $ level at our intended stop of 986 $ for -2.57%.
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 3/24/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 3/24/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 3/24/2017]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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