Bitcoin Price Report for November 14, 2016
Nov 14, 2016 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary (BTC):
It's been a relatively crazy few days for bitcoin considering we were well above 700 $ for the majority of the week last week, but are now sitting just below there following a downside washout into the low 680's $ early Sunday morning. We think this pullback was caused by a couple of different factors, some fundamental and some technical.
From a fundamental perspective, we think this move was simply the result of "buy the rumor, sell the news" traders taking profits following the Trump election victory, as well as some pricing in of a more hawkish Federal Reserve (notice what happened to gold last week).
Technically speaking, the market was overextended and divergent up at the 740 - 745 $ resistance area which created perfect conditions for a double top washout. Now price is pinned just below 700 $, although it has been oscillating on either side of that level over the past 24 hours, and it seems as though a bit of indecision has crept into the market thus paralyzing near term traders.
The 12-hour chart below remains both intriguing and revealing from a short to medium term perspective. We can indeed see the double top in the 740 $ area on what were bearishly divergent momentum indicators, although the "M" top has yet to be confirmed given the 670 $ regional low has yet to be punctured. Additionally, SCMR did paint a [members-only text] candle yesterday and dynamic support continues to build [members-only text], however we are now getting more red candles and bearish market structure coming in which tells us that perhaps more downside is in the cards prior to a legitimate reversal higher.
Moving on, notice that momentum is now mixed rather than bearish considering Willy and RSI have pulled back into no man's land where they are treading water, MACD is trying to [members-only text], PPO is now neutral, and the short term EMA's have turned bearish while the 200 SMA continues to move to the upside. Additionally, exchange volumes are not yet signaling a bottom, the A/D line took a small tick lower for the first time in awhile, and volume profile remains porous down to the [members-only text] area. Speaking of which, there is also a technical confluence in that region in the form of the [members-only text], the intermediate term demand area, historical [members-only text], and the 200-period SMA. This remains our main area of interest in terms of adding long positions to our already established MT ProTrade.
Generally speaking we think things remain on track for a [members-only text], although we might have to exercise some patient over the next few weeks given the likelihood of a rangy consolidation with a slight bearish bias. Until further notice we would be longer term buyers of moves down into the [members-only text] zone, shorter term buyers of a retest of the [members-only text], and sellers of rallies up into the [members-only text] range.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED on 11/10/2016; CLOSED on 11/13/2016]**: (a) We have closed our [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level at [members-only text].
(b) **[ENTERD on 11/11/2016; CLOSED on 11/13/2016]**: We closed our [members-only text] position at the [members-only text] level.
(c) **[NEW TRADE ISSUED on 11/14/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/14/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/14/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/11/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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