Bitcoin Price Report for November 16, 2016
Nov 16, 2016 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary (BTC):
The market has spoken, and the market wants higher prices. Following a short-lived consolidation in the ~710 - 715 $ range yesterday, a break above the pennant downtrend line in conjunction with another Yuan devaluation sent bitcoin prices skyrocketing up to the 740 - 745 $ resistance area overnight. Now the market is trying to get its bearings as the buying frenzy subsides, however it appears as though the damage has already been done meaning the bias is now firmly to the upside. While we would not be surprised to see a small pullback to test the top of the broken trendline prior to a more legitimate breakout over the 745 $ regional highs, we would be buyers of that dip considering the positive technicals and fundamentals remain intact.
Speaking of the technicals, once again we are taking a look at two charts today in order to put the current market move into context on a few different timeframes. We will start with the 12-hour chart given it is more interesting from a shorter term perspective. We can clearly see the breakout above the bullish pennant/symmetrical triangle from yesterday on what are once again [members-only text] candles. We also still have strong support sitting at the [members-only text] low, market structure is undeniably bullish, the EMA's have crossed over to the upside, and the 200-period SMA continues to accelerate higher. Additionally, momentum looks good considering Willy has plenty of room to run, RSI is confirming the rally, MACD has breached the centerline, and PPO is still flashing buy signals. Throw in the fact that the A/D line remains in a steady uptrend and exchange volumes are bullish, and we think the stage is set for a continuation higher over the coming weeks.
Moving on to the daily chart, we can see that the breakout above the bullish pennant formation is very convincing from a price action perspective, but still leaves much to be desired in terms of trading volumes. Our thinking is that the majority of FOMO volume will enter the market on breaks of the [members-only text] levels, which will then confirm the longer term move to the upside. Also note that SCMR is [members-only text] once again, and the A/D line has hastened its uptrend. Finally, despite the fact that volume profile could use some more filling in prior to an extension into a new and higher trading range, the technicals seem to be synchronizing across timeframes which indicates pent up bullishness.
We still could test lower levels in the [members-only text] area, but as time progresses and price stays elevated the chances incrementally diminish. Having said that, we do think there is a decent chance of a pullback to test the top of the broken pennant in the [members-only text] range so we would use that opportunity to add to the MT ProTrade, which by the way now has an even higher target.
All things considered, it looks to us like this could be the initial stage of the year end rally we have been calling for since summer. Fundamentals and technicals continue to align while mainstream skepticism remains high, a recipe for higher prices over the medium term in our opinion. Again, we will stay [members-only text] and will look to add in the [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 11/16/2016]**: (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
(b) **[UPDATED on 11/16/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/16/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/16/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/14/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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