Bitcoin Price Report for November 21, 2016
Nov 21, 2016 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary (BTC):
Since the release of our report yesterday, the market has bottomed and bounced from the 715 $ area up to the mid-730's $ as traders try to play the rebound in hopes of a breakout above the 755 $ local high in the not too distant future. While we like where their heads are at in terms of buying weakness, we also think they may be a bit too early considering what has materialized between Core and Unlimited, as well as the medium term technicals which still remain somewhat challenged.
Having said that, the shorter term charts continue to paint a more bullish picture so we cannot rule out a continuation higher. Given we are still long in the MT ProTrade off of [members-only text], we are ok with not being in a near term trade for the time being. Instead, we will stay patient in case the market does come back down into our levels where risk/reward profiles remain much more attractive.
Today we want to revisit the 12-hour chart as it is the most revealing short to medium term chart that we can find. Notice that we now have a rather unorthodox double top up in the 750 $ area, although its credence is somewhat diminished considering a new marginal high was made on Saturday, and there could be a bigger version of the rising wedge we identified over the weekend developing right now ([members-only text]).
Additionally, there appears to be a smaller fractal of the pattern from the first week of November in which price went from a local high of 745 $ down to a local low of 670 $, followed by what was volatile chop between those two levels prior to another move to a nominal high. We would not be surprised to see the same thing play out now, implying a move back up to test the [members-only text] resistance area before heading back down to find another local, and sustainable, low.
Despite these rather bearish indications, there are still some encouraging signs that give us confidence in our longer term forecast. Notice that SCMR is now painting a [members-only text]candle following what was a [members-only text] candle (just like the move from early November), and dynamic support continues to build between [members-only text]. Additionally, trading volumes are still confirming the bullish bias despite the selloff yesterday, the A/D line has flattened out somewhat but remains in its uptrend, RSI and MACD are recharged, and all relevant MA's remain bullish. Despite the fact that Willy and PPO are still relatively overbought, overall the indicators look much better than they did even yesterday.
Not surprisingly there is no change to our medium to long term forecast of significantly higher prices over the coming months, however the shorter term outlook remains much more uncertain considering the technicals are relatively mixed for the time being. Add to that worries over Core vs. Unlimited and it seems very possible that we see a final leg down to test our VST ProTrade buy zone between [members-only text] at some point soon, although the fractal we previously mentioned is also very possible which would imply a rangy consolidation between [members-only text] prior to the next leg up to test resistance in the 778 $ area. Either way, we remain ready for what the market throws at us, at least for now.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**: (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
(b) **[ENTERED @ 732 $; CLOSED @ 744 $ for +1.64% profit]**: We we have closed our LONG position off of the 732 $ level at 744 $ for +1.64% profit. No new ProTrades at this time due to poor risk/reward at current levels.
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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