Bitcoin Price Report for November 30, 2016
Nov 30, 2016 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary (BTC):
Bitcoin finally made a move out of the 720 - 740 $ range overnight, thus indeed confirming the bullish bias in the market right now. We think this is mainly due to favorable technicals as opposed to a fundamental catalyst, which is why we would not be surprised to see price languish below [members-only text] once again prior to the real breakout. While we remain patient in the VST ProTrade for slightly higher levels, we want to protect gains by moving our stop level up a bit. If the market does enter another short term sideways consolidation we are fairly confident we can jump back in on the long side if we do end up getting washout out. If not, though, then at least we can remain long in the MT ProTrade which we can ride to substantially higher levels.
Today we show two charts again, but this time around the second one is rather unorthodox. We will get to that in a minute, but first lets revisit the 12-hour chart for some clarity on the short to medium term outlook. We can see that the Adam & Eve double bottom remains intact and seems to be confirming the upside bias while the bullish ascending triangle pattern remains intact, not to mention that we now have [members-only text] SCMR candles in addition to new dynamic support at the [members-only text] low. Also notice that market structure is coming in bullish, price has broken back above the 50-period SMA, and the near term EMA's are about to crossover to the upside. While things appear to be on track for a move above heavy resistance at [members-only text], we would not be surprised to see a small pullback and consolidation first in order to recharge momentum.
Speaking of momentum, the Stochastic is already overbought, which is one of the main reasons we are expecting a slight test to the downside in the not too distant future, however Willy and RSI still have room to run, MACD is picking up steam following a break above the zeroline, and PPO is flashing neutral signals. Additionally, bullish volumes are slowly picking up and the A/D line still looks very good, although volume profile could still use some work to the downside, at least back to the[members-only text] area. As we have been saying for the past several days, [members-only text].
Moving on to the second chart and we can see that it is a bit different. This chart shows the spread between OKCoin USD spot prices and OKCoin Quarterly futures contracts. This relationship can often be used as a early indicator of a more powerful rally given spot fiat prices tend to increase rapidly when this "Benchmark" spread is widening out. Conversely, prices are typically under pressure when this chart is moving to the downside. In this particular circumstance we can see that the spread is in an ascending triangle pattern, much like spot BTCUSD prices currently are in, which would indicate an eventual resolution [members-only text] of the formation. Seeing as though we are on the trendline on what has become a beautiful volume profile setup, in addition to a very oversold Stochastic oscillator, we think that we are due for a [members-only text], in the not too distant future.
All things considered we want to remain steadfast in both of the active ProTrades for the time being, but would also be willing to buy the dip once again in case we do get one more fakeout/washout move lower prior to the sustainable move above resistances at [members-only text]. If the near term dip we are expecting fails to materialize, however, we are ready to stay long in the MT trade and potentially add to it on a breakout above [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ACTIVE; ENTERED @ [members-only text] on 11/28/2016]**: (a) We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
(b) **[UPDATED on 11/30/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
(c) **[UPDATED on 11/28/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position on a breakout above the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/22/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/21/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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