Bitcoin Price Report for November 7, 2016

Nov 7, 2016 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports

Market Commentary (BTC):  

As the world waits with baited breath for the results of the US election later this week, the bitcoin markets are flatlining ahead of that event.  Following a textbook washout down to new support at 670 $ on the still unconfirmed China rumors, price has since been slowly plodding to the upside as nervousness builds.  Now we are sitting just above 700 $ as the market continues to mark time in a sideways fashion.  We think the bid in bitcoin is coming from [members-only text], although as we will see below via the technicals we think this period of relative stability will be short-lived.  We expect a return to volatility, [members-only text], over the latter half of this week going into next.

We can see on the 6-hour chart below that despite the recent rally up into the low 700's $, the market still looks heavy from a technical perspective.  First of all, notice that market structure is coming in bearish once again on what appears to be a Head & Shoulders topping formation. [members-only text].  Additionally, price is close to breaking back below the intermediate term uptrend line, we are still well outside of the volume profile value area, and the near term EMA's have rolled over once again.

Having said all of that, momentum does look better than it has in awhile considering PPO is still flashing buy signals, Willy and RSI are both consolidating above their respective 40-lines, the Stochastic is moving up swiftly, and the 200-period SMA remains in a bullish uptrend.  Also, regarding volume, the A/D line is still moving higher, exchange volumes are currently unimpressive, and volume profile remains unattractive, all of which tell us that [members-only text]

Given the fundamental landscape at play right now, including the election, we want to stay neutral to slightly bearishly biased for the time being until we get a better idea of directionality over the course of this week.  Having said that, we think the charts are currently indicating another leg to the downside in the not too distant future, one that likely breaks support at [members-only text] on its way to the [members-only text] area, a move which would create a proper ABC correction and would then allow for a continuation higher.  With that in mind, we have issued a new VST ProTrade in order to try to take advantage of the potential volatility coming our way in the latter half of this week, but will limit our target to [members-only text].

NOTE: A Trump victory could potentially "trump" the technicals and send bitcoin significantly higher, however we think that scenario is unlikely at this point given our current analysis.  Even with a Trump win bitcoin could still move lower on a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type trade, we just wanted to mention a breakout as a possibility so that risk management is front of mind for those that are considering [members-only text].
Posted ProTrade Ideas:

1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ISSUED on 11/7/2016]**:  (a) We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

(b) **[ISSUED on 11/7/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/7/2016]**:  We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].

3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/7/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.

4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**:  We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].  We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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