Bitcoin Price Update for January 20, 2017
Jan 20, 2017 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary:
The market has really stalled out over the past 24 hours as uncertainty regarding the PBoC's inspections of the big three Chinese exchanges mount, in addition to worries surrounding Trump's inauguration in the US, both of which have made bulls and bears hesitant to act. Not even recent futures settlements, which were expected to be volatile, have been able to break the market away from the current 850 - 915 $ near term trading range. While we will have some clarity as far as US politics goes as this Friday progresses, the bigger news out of China might not come until next week. Given these overhanging fundamental factors, in addition to mixed technicals on the short and medium term charts, we think price is in a fairly unpredictable environment right now which is why we want to stay cautious for now.
Let's finish the week off with one final look at the 4-hour and daily charts today in order to see if we can glean any new hints as to directionality and timing over the short to medium term. We can see on the 4-hour chart below that price is now well within the still bearish Ichimoku Cloud and remains above the upper trendline, but is struggling to get back above [members-only text] and the [members-only text]. Also notice that SCMR is [members-only text], we still don't have any new [members-only text], and it appears as though the market could be putting in a market structure double top in the low-900's $. Having said that, it just as easily could be part of a slightly larger ascending triangle that likely resolves to the upside in to the not too distant future, but we still don't quite have enough evidence to say which outcome (double top or triangle) will actually materialize just yet. Given momentum and volume indications that are very mixed, we wouldn't at all be surprised to see another fakeout to the downside to test the bottom of the cloud, and perhaps OTE long zone, prior to a resumption to new local highs next week.
Moving on to the daily chart and again not much has changed since yesterday other than the pennant formation that we mentioned is filling out a bit more as the near term range slowly tightens. Also note that SCMR is painting another [members-only text] for today, the [members-only text] remains in effect, the upper trendline is still intact, and the EMA's are close to crossing back to the upside while providing near term support. Additionally, price is still within the intermediate term supply area on what remain rather favorable momentum conditions, while volume indications continue to support the idea of an extension of the current [members-only text] until a resolution to the upside develops later this year. The broader consolidation range continues to sit between 750 and 1100 $, allowing for much leeway both up and down during this period, while the shorter term trading range seems to be [members-only text]. Until one of these levels is broken convincingly, the market should continue to tread water for the time being.
Looking forward, the technicals seem to be telling us to stay patient over the short term while keeping an eye out for opportunities on bouts of news-driven weakness. Longer term the forecast for an eventual resolution up and out of this larger trading range to new ATH's is still in effect, although timing remains murky. So, as we head into a weekend filled with both fundamental and technical uncertainty, we think it best to [members-only text] generally speaking so that we can be prepared and ready when the market gives us a clearer trade signal.
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [UPDATED on 1/20/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 1/20/2017]**: We closed our [members-only text] position off of the [members-only text] level at breakeven for no gain or loss.
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [UPDATED on 1/17/2017]**: We will consider a [members-only text] on a move to the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 1/10/2017]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
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