Bitcoin Price Update for November 9, 2016
Nov 9, 2016 --- (ARCHIVED) Free Reports
Market Commentary (BTC):
Wow. Just wow. In a surprise victory that practically nobody saw coming, Donald Trump has become the 45th President of the United States. In the moments after it became apparent that indeed the win would he his, global stock markets were cratering, safe havens were catching a bid (including bitcoin), and forex was injected with a shot of volatility. As we move into this morning and all of this starts to sink in, markets are calming as investors try to suss out what all of this means for the future of their money.
As mentioned, bitcoin has shown it's might once again as a disaster hedge, rising throughout the night from a low of around 710 $ yesterday afternoon to a local high of 740 $ in the overnight hours. Despite a failure to breakout to new regional highs on the initial push, the technicals are looking much better than they did just 24 hours ago.
Speaking of which, let's take a look at the 12-hour and daily charts for a better idea of what yesterday's move looks like in the context of the broad range trade that bitcoin remains in between 670 - 745 $. We can see on the daily chart below that the dump down to that 670 $ low late last week has indeed created a substantial enough handle on the Cup & Handle formation to green light a continuation to the upside at some point in the not too distant future. While it was not as deep and corrective as we thought it would be, the daily chart is looking quite nice in terms of that particular pattern. Also note that [members-only text], while dynamic support continues to build [members-only text]. Additionally, the near term EMA's are still stacking to the upside, the 200-day SMA remains bullish in an uptrend, and the A/D line continues to move higher.
Conversely, momentum is telling a somewhat different story for the time being, however remember that during the last decent multi-day rally we had in price overbought momentum was a sign of strength. Willy is [members-only text], RSI has more room to run following a hold of the 50-line, the Stochastic is elevated but is already reversing higher, MACD was unable to break below its centerline on the dump last week, and PPO is still flashing weak sell signals but is close to becoming neutral once again. Finally, trading volumes continue to show that the recent "China" pullback was simply a pause that refreshes rather than the beginning of another extended consolidation. All in all we would say that things look pretty darn good for bitcoin right now despite the possibility of [members-only text].
Moving on to the shorter term 12-hour chart we can see that things look fairly positive here as well. Again, SCMR is [members-only text], dynamic support continues to build around[members-only text], and market structure has turned decidedly bullish. Additionally, momentum looks much better on this chart than on the daily considering Willy has pulled back deep into no man's land and looks ready to reverse higher, RSI is confirming the move and has room to run, MACD is close to testing its centerline on the way up, and PPO is now neutral. Add to that the fact that the A/D line is still trending higher and volumes were impressive last night even though there was no breakout, and we think [members-only text].
Overall, given the fundamental and technical realties that we wake up to today we think bitcoin is in a great position to perform extremely well over the course of the coming months. While we are not yet ready to call a breakout move imminent at this time given the possibility of a retest of some technical and historical support between [members-only text], we think the odds of a more significant dump continue to diminish every hour that bitcoin remains elevated above the 715 $ breakout level from yesterday. If that area can hold on selloffs this week, then we think the final six weeks of this year will be alot of fun for bitcoin "bagholders" ;)
Posted ProTrade Ideas:
1.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Very Short Term [ENTERED @ [members-only text]; CLOSED @ [members-only text]]**: (a) We have closed our [members-only text] position at [members-only text] for a [members-only text] of [members-only text].
(b) **[CANCELLED on 11/8/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
2.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Short Term [UPDATED on 11/8/2016]**: We will consider a [members-only text] position in the [members-only text] area with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text].
3.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Medium Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/7/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position on a pullback to the a [members-only text] area.
4.) **Bitcoin ProTrade - Long Term [ACTIVE; UPDATED on 11/2/2016]**: We will stay [members-only text] off of the [members-only text] level with a stop around [members-only text] and a target of [members-only text]. We will add to the position in the [members-only text] area.
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