Bitcoin Price Prediction for May 11, 2016

Market Commentary:

The fact that the bitcoin markets were barely changed from 10 days ago is mindboggling. We are not quite sure yet if this is a sign of additional liquidity as a result of greater demand, or if it is a sign that shorts are building for a spike lower. We tend to think the former, but will certainly not rule out the latter given it is perfectly reasonable from a risk/reward perspective right now. Whatever the case, the bears are having a helluva time pushing prices below the short and medium term trendlines.

Having said that, we have noticed an increase in bearish sentiment lately, especially from the exchange trollboxes and TradingView, which in conjunction with price action tells us that the bears are simply unable to generate enough fear to drive us down through support (at least for the time being). We view this a positive development, but as time passes it also opens us to the risk that longs get too over-extended. This could potentially drive margin calls to the downside. 

Generally speaking, we view the last few weeks of bitcoin trading as bullish despite a legitimate breakout to the upside. We also have not had a major breakdown to the downside either, so both teams seem to be equally frustrated right now.